Contemplating a return match with the B1G’s enigmatic Indiana Hoosiers, you should focus on rebounding and how the Hoosiers approach it.
Angry white trash fans will tell you — between calls for Archie Miller’s head — that their team has been pretty damn good on defense this year. The offense stalls for massive dead periods, predictably, if not every single game.
As for boards, Indiana is not good. Or at least, they’re not as good as conference opponents. Here’s a chart of recent Illini opponents, and how they perform on the glass in B1G games.
Some obvious points here: Iowa has the most rebounds per game because they play fast. Ohio State has the most rebounds overall because they’ve played 12 games. Rutgers has more O-bounds than its opponents, and fewer overall. Maryland does not compete for offensive rebounds. Not always, anyhow.
Not crashing the O-boards was key to Maryland’s win in Champaign. By sending their guys the other way, Maryland’s defense allowed itself to fend off Ayo and the blitzkrieg Illini transition game.
Deconstructing that game, Terps coach Matt Brady said this of the Illini “7 seconds” plan:
“Transition is such a big deal for them, We lost to Illinois (the Tevian Jones game) when they beat us in transition. And even though they got 18 points in transition (this January), we said we’re gonna send three if not four guys back. We’re not even going to try to get an offensive rebound unless we have a great chance to get a rebound. It’s another one of the things, if you’re going to beat them, you have to keep them out of transition. It was part and parcel of what we tried to do.”
Contrast Friday’s Iowa game. Every time the Hawkeyes made a bucket, Ayo immediately sprinted through their “defense” for a lay-up.
Ohio State won in Champaign because they did something unusual — or at least unusual for them: They relied on three-point shooters who hadn’t previously been successful from the arc.
It’s hard to scout for things that never happen, and it’s not worth scouting for things that rarely happen. That’s why Illini fans perseverate about the unknown bench player who “goes off” against Illinois. In truth, that happens to every team. It’s the nature of the game.
Like Ohio State, Indiana is small-ish on the interior. Like EJ Liddell, Trayce Jackson-Davis is a natural power forward who plays somewhat out of position. But unlike EJ Liddell, Trayce Jackson-Davis has not attempted a three-pointer this year. Not even during Indiana’s three non-conference blowouts.
So the key thing to watch for tonight is how Indiana sets up on the defensive end. Will they get back before Ayo takes off for the races? Will they keep the ball out of Kofi’s hands? That’s been an Achilles heel for Illinois this year. You’d want Kofi to get more than 10 touches per game, but so far, Brad Underwood’s scheming has not produced more touches. A few Zooms ago, he chuckled at the notion that any scheming could achieve a more open, or less harassed, Kofi.
But if it weren’t possible, you’d never have heard of Aloysius Anagonye. There’s a list of famous Spartans from Zach Randolph to Kelvin Torbert to the supersoft Paul Davis whose interior efforts were greatly advanced by Aloysius Anagonye felling defenders left and right around them.
So far in the Underwood tenure, Illinois has employed the butt-screen for its little guys, rather than as flack protection for its bigs.
When Kofi does get the ball, he’ll need to keep it high. away from help defenders.
Jackson-Davis is a good shot blocker, and he has a thick base. His shoulders aren’t as broad as you’d expect if you only got a chance to look at his lower trunk. But he knows how to use his hands in low-post defensive situations. But if Kofi can muscle the ball upward, he (or a teammate) will get slightly more than one chance per shot to achieve ball-through-ring.
Indiana doesn’t rebound well, and Jacob Grandison has launched himself into a prominent role largely because his natural instinct is to rush the offensive glass (90% according to Underwood).
If Kofi gets 15 touches, Indiana loses. If Grandison gets four second-chance buckets, Indiana loses.
But teams don’t need to rebound, certainly not offensively, if they never miss. Quod erat demonstrandum. If Rob Phinisee and Aljami Durham drain their threes*, and if Kofi gets twelve touches or fewer, Indiana wins.
*Armaan Franklin will make his, if he plays. He’s shooting 46% this season. Durham is 32% & Phinisee is 35%